The next supply chain casualty could be the french fry | Crain's New York Business

2022-08-08 07:32:03 By : Ms. Aling Zhang

New York City has a potato problem.

Omer Shorshi, co-owner of Pommes Frites, said he used to pay $22 for a 50-pound bag of the Idaho potatoes that he said make the best french fries. The russets he favors have a good flavor and the right texture for frying, he said.

Friday he paid $38 for the same bag. Three days later, the price was $50.

The Idaho spuds ideal for making fries are in short supply after a poor Western growing season last year, and this year’s crop won’t be available until early fall.

On June 1 the stock of Idaho-grown potatoes totaled 21 million hundredweight, 20% lower than at the same point last year, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. 

The low supply is putting pressure on the restaurants that serve homemade fries—and the suppliers selling them potatoes. As a result, prices for potatoes and fries are both rising, and chefs are experimenting with varieties of tubers from Canada, Massachusetts and New York.

For Shorshi, the shortage is driving up costs just months after the price of sunflower oil tripled in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the two countries supply about 70% of the world’s sunflower oil.

“This year is a perfect storm for us,” said Shorshi, whose 25-year-old West Village shop specializes in french fries. He switched to soy oil and still decided he had to increase the price of a cone of fries by $1.

Now, with potato costs shooting up, he hopes not to have to raise prices again, especially by the time that nearby New York University students return to their late-night french-fry snacking when the semester begins.

“We’ll try to ride it out for a few weeks,” he said. “Every time we raise prices, we lose customers.”

Fast food companies so far appear to be inoculated from the shortage because they tend to buy frozen fries, a separate supply chain. Neither McDonald’s nor New York–based Shake Shack singled out a lack of potatoes as a risk in recent quarterly reports, though overall food costs are going up.

That leaves smaller spots to jump out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Bronx-based restaurant supplier Baldor is making a pitch to its customers to diversify their potato orders, if their dishes can be flexible enough to use non-Idahos.

The company is sourcing russets from Oregon, Washington and Maine and is seeking to celebrate New York’s local crop of lesser-known varieties, with poetic names such as Magic Molly, Blue Adirondack and Upstate Abundance.

“We showcase the list to give customers a solution,” said Donald Russo, senior category manager at Baldor.

Even with its array of solutions—and some remaining Idaho stock—Russo said it was unlikely that Baldor would be able to keep up its typical potato sales pace until the next crop of potatoes becomes available beginning in October.

Alternative potatoes probably will work in the gratins and mashed potatoes on his menu, said chef Joel Riess at  Upper East Side restaurant Who’s Jac W.?  He just bought Kennebac potatoes from Baldor for the first time.

But making french fries is a more exact science, said Riess, who added he is known for his fries. Typically he buys 50 cases of the highest-end Idaho potato, known as the GPOD, in the summer and stores them to get through the second half of summer, when supply always dips a bit. But he said he can’t access or store enough this year.

Instead, he is experimenting with how long to blanch and fry potatoes during successive rounds of cooking.

“It’s about testing something new,” he said.

Shorshi, who sells nothing but fries and a long list of dipping sauces, said he was worried about the prospect of alternative potatoes.

“The flavor is bland, like nothing,” he said. “We’d have to put a lot of sauce.”

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